Harvard Economist Warns of Potential for ‘Pretty Big’ Recession — No ‘Soft Landing’
Harvard University professor Kenneth Rogoff warned of the possibility of a recession in the United States and predicted that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to secure a “soft landing” for the economy during a Wednesday appearance on the Fox Business Network.
A transcript is as follows:
MARIA BARTIROMO: I’m wondering if the sell-off in the price of oil has to do with these expectations that we’re seeing in this sharp slowdown in the macro. If you believe things will slow real fast and pretty significantly, you’ll believe oil prices will come down, right? Or is it a different scenario because of the supply and demand dynamics of not a lot of supply of oil and gas from here in America?
KENNETH ROGOFF: First off, Europe is in worse shape than we are. They have the energy problem, dependent on Russia and facing the costs of the war much more. That’s also part of the global oil story. Maybe China isn’t picking up as fast as some reports are saying. The oil is a globally determined price. But the United States still has a very high level of inflation and a very strong job market. I feel from strong conviction is the Fed’s not going to get its wish of a soft landing and I’m betting they’re going to blank, but I don’t think they’re going to be able to bring inflation down to target in the next year or year and a half and not have a pretty big recession.