Rasmussen Poll: Republicans Show 8-Point Lead on Generic Ballot
A generic Republican candidate showed an eight-point lead over a generic Democrat, a slight three-point raise from the previous week, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll released Friday.
As the Republicans look to retake control of Congress in the 2022 midterm elections roughly four months away, the most recent Rasmussen Reports survey showed that 48 percent of likely U.S. voters would elect a Republican, compared to the 40 percent who said they would vote for the Democrat.
Only four percent said they would vote for some other candidate, and the other eight percent said they were not sure. However, the GOP’s lead rose by three points from the previous week when the lead spread eight points, 47 percent to 42 percent.
The slight rise in poll numbers on the Republican side comes after the Supreme Court’s historic 5-4 opinion overturning Roe v. Wade through its ruling on the Dobbs case, which determined the right to abortion is not included in the Constitution, returning the issue of abortion laws and regulations to state legislatures.
Despite the Republicans’ recent rise, it comes when there are still roughly four months left before the election and there is still time for the generic ballot to move either way before the November election.
Rasmussen has previously noted that in June 2018 — before the Democrats took the House for the first time in eight years — they only had a four-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot.
Additionally, June 2018 was slightly up from May 2018, at which time the Democrats only had a one-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot. That June, the Democrats held a four-point advantage of 45 percent to 41 percent.
Plus, as the 2018 November midterm election neared, the margins between the Democrats and Republicans became extremely close — Republicans had 46 percent to 45 percent for Democrats.
In this poll, the Republican Party has a heavy advantage (12 points) with independents over the Democrats. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 43 percent said they would vote for the GOP candidate, while only 31 percent said they would vote for the Democrat candidate.
Additionally, 27 percent of black voters and 43 percent of other minority groups said they would vote for the Republican candidate if the election were held today. The percentage of black voters who said they would vote for Republicans is also up four percent from last week.
For Democrats, 61 percent of black voters and 41 percent of other minority groups said they would vote for them. Compared to last week, Democrats have lost four percent of black voters.
Furthermore, there is a wide difference in voter intensity between the parties, with 88 percent of Republican voters saying they would vote for their own party’s congressional candidate and only 79 percent of Democrats saying the same thing.
The Rasmussen Reports survey was conducted from July 5 to 7 and questioned 2,500 likely U.S. voters. The survey had a two percent margin of error and a 95 percent confidence level.
