CBS News Battleground Tracker Predicts Republicans will Regain House Majority

The CBS News Battleground Tracker predicted on Sunday that Republicans would regain the House majority in the midterm elections roughly three months away.

The tracker, meant to regularly provide “detailed snapshots ” of the midterm results and the election seat count for 99 days, showed that Republicans would take back the House of Representatives. The tracker’s key feature is estimating how many seats each party is poised to win.

Needing 2018 for the majority in the House, the tracker shows that Republicans are poised to win 230 seats in the election, compared to the Democrats only winning 205. The margin of error is 12 seats.

The previous update to the poll showed that Democrats would have the majority in the House, with 221 seats compared to the Republicans’ 214 seats.

The tracker should take a “district-by-district approach” to analyze the races by measuring the public opinion on individual races instead of using the national popular vote since the majority is won by individual races, not one race. The tracker says the national polls could be misleading.

However, after striving to win back the House in 2020, Republicans left Democrats with the slimmest majority in modern history and gave themselves the upper hand in the midterms.

For Republicans, winning the majority will require a net gain of only four seats in November, and much is on the line in both the House and the Senate. Losing either could mean the Democrats and President Joe Biden will have a more challenging time passing their agenda items before the next presidential election.

However, while the CBS tracker only had the GOP in the majority by 12 seats, some Republicans and analysts have said the party would win more.

Analysts from the University of Virginia Center for Politics, who predict the probable outcomes of House races, recently wrote that the House GOP would gain seats “somewhere in the 20s” and that the Supreme Court’s recent landmark opinion on abortion doesn’t seem to have a “huge impact” on the election.

In addition, analysts from the Cook Political Report, who also predict the probable outcome of House races, shifted their outlook on the midterm elections, noting that the net Republican gains could be between 20 and 35 seats.



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